Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 2.966200 3.527013 4.151927 4.898012 5.762554 6.730798 7.895206
2025-06-29 1.992344 2.695979 3.572021 4.734314 6.226221 8.066232 10.495267
2025-07-06 1.437077 2.175856 3.187421 4.653783 6.700957 9.429500 13.306894
2025-07-13 1.204515 2.003988 3.188424 5.033739 7.789045 11.692601 17.565978
2025-07-20 0.987894 1.791739 3.070785 5.195900 8.562082 13.590380 21.535868
2025-07-27 0.835953 1.639615 3.003034 5.401178 9.401195 15.655983 25.962437
2025-08-03 0.687282 1.454222 2.837894 5.406730 9.903806 17.240350 29.803587
2025-08-10 0.545350 1.244772 2.585865 5.210731 10.025969 18.206979 32.737694
2025-08-17 0.427224 1.051491 2.322467 4.941380 9.967015 18.842444 35.161055
2025-08-24 0.353285 0.932148 2.177116 4.864548 10.233783 20.047247 38.648348
2025-08-31 0.295972 0.835234 2.057571 4.815079 10.536869 21.334631 42.386378
2025-09-07 0.267702 0.800819 2.065072 5.026348 11.370713 23.669068 48.216797
2025-09-14 0.228744 0.730755 1.982898 5.040456 11.825439 25.368837 53.100247
2025-09-21 0.194690 0.664640 1.897569 5.035051 12.242183 27.045490 58.116732
2025-09-28 0.165239 0.602885 1.810150 5.009615 12.611142 28.663153 63.169149
2025-10-05 0.159346 0.611194 1.905178 5.439055 14.045687 32.591726 73.156844
2025-10-12 0.143990 0.584742 1.901648 5.621773 14.936424 35.465016 81.237837
2025-10-19 0.131784 0.565219 1.913482 5.845453 15.949098 38.688143 90.301322
2025-10-26 0.114480 0.522022 1.847820 5.852643 16.440236 40.819391 97.236873
2025-11-02 0.094144 0.460046 1.711592 5.642574 16.365616 41.682677 101.520348
2025-11-09 0.075552 0.397356 1.557661 5.353326 16.048059 41.956339 104.527402
2025-11-16 0.064194 0.360403 1.479115 5.270807 16.258025 43.470606 110.417908
2025-11-23 0.055061 0.329567 1.414083 5.217656 16.539030 45.176535 116.875391